Under the global epidemic situation, the two-wheel electric Vehicle industry is still lucky, and the automobile industry is really miserable!

Under the global epidemic situation, the two-wheel electric Vehicle industry is still lucky, and the automobile industry is really miserable!

  • Friday, 10 April 2020
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Under the epidemic, the global economy declines

Recently, the World Trade Organization predicts that due to the epidemic, global merchandise trade will decline by 13% to 32% in 2020.

Out of the need to "block the source of infection and cut off the transmission route", the service industry bears the brunt, and the catering industry, tourism industry, leisure and entertainment industry are suffering terribly;

The secondary industry is also very sad. The automotive, mechanical equipment, chemical, pharmaceutical, aerospace, semiconductor and other industries generally have long supply chains and cross-border supply, so they are greatly affected by the supply chain's interruption of supply.

According to statistics, there are currently at least 120 automobile factories in the world that have ceased production. In Europe alone, the livelihoods of 1.11 million automobile company employees are directly affected.

Automobile companies, the biggest crisis after World War II

The three major automakers in the United States have announced that all North American plants will be shut down;

The European automobile manufacturing industry also shut down with Italy as the center;

Eight Japanese car companies have announced a suspension of domestic car production.

The resumption time is unknown.

According to "Financial" interviews with people in the automotive industry, global car sales will fall by more than 12% year-on-year in 2020, which is higher than the 8% during the 2008 financial crisis. It will take at least 10 years to return to 2019 levels.

The person said that at that time, the financial crisis caused by the financial tsunami in 2008, companies were afraid of breaking funds;

Now, the sustainability of consumption is affected, the global supply chain is also unstable, and the automotive industry is hit by both the demand side and the supply side.

The three major car companies in Detroit and Tesla have announced salary reduction plans, including executive salary cuts, postponement of employee salaries, etc .:

Starting from May 1, 300 Ford executives will reduce their salaries, ranging from 20% to 50%, with a minimum duration of 5 months;

General Motors announced that it will postpone the payment of 20% of the salaries of all employees and repay the salary by March 15, 2021.

FCA will also postpone the payment of 20% of the employee's salary, and all the board members will give up the remaining salary in 2020;

From April 13th, Tesla will also temporarily reduce wages by 30% for vice presidents and above, 20% for directors and above, and 10% for remaining employees until the end of the second quarter.

Giants such as Volkswagen Group and Ford Motors have stated that if the epidemic continues, layoffs may be inevitable.

The world's largest car company has come out to "cry for poverty", Volkswagen Group CEO Diss said in an interview with German media:

Volkswagen currently has no income outside the Chinese market, but still has to bear a fixed cost of about 2 billion euros per week;

Based on the profit of 19.3 billion euros in 2019, Volkswagen Group will lose 50 million euros / day if the factory stops for one day.

Suppliers are less risk-resistant than auto companies. Some auto parts companies in the automotive industry are already seeking emergency government assistance.

Top suppliers, such as: Magna Canada, Faurecia France, Continental AG, etc., all believed that this year's situation was very severe and withdrew their original fiscal year 2020 expectations.

Suppliers and OEMs can be said to be "prosperous and prosperous, and harm both."

Car executives believe that it is meaningless to resume work in a single country. The European Union has a game, and the supply chains of Italy and Spain have to keep up.

The automobile manufacturing industry is the "crown" of industrial production. Multi-level suppliers are interlocking and indispensable.

In short, at present, it seems that only the Chinese factory is operating normally in the automotive industry, and the Chinese market has become a life-saving straw. Because the epidemic broke out early in China, and we have been nationwide to fight the epidemic, so the production and sales of automobiles have also resumed early.

Domestic automakers have resumed work successively from February 10, and the production line of the Wuhan plant has also resumed from March 11.

However, the risk of supply chain cuts still makes domestic car companies big, after all, the global supply chain is closely connected.

Back to the title, why do you say "Under the impact of the global epidemic, the two-wheel electric vehicle industry is still lucky"?

It is mainly judged from two angles-supply chain + demand side:

First, the supply chain of our industry is actually relatively concentrated and stable. The three major production sectors "Wuxi Base, Tianjin Base, and Taizhou Base" can basically stand alone.

For example, if Wuxi's automaker wants to produce luxury electric vehicles, he can basically purchase a complete set of equipment locally because the local supply chain is already relatively complete. The same is true of the production of simple models in the Tianjin base and the production of electric motorcycles in the Taizhou base.

Second, the epidemic situation will not affect people's demand for electric vehicles, and certainly will not have a negative impact, but will stimulate demand.

After all, two-wheeled electric vehicles can really easily "one person, one car, travel safely", the air is completely circulated, practical, affordable, and cost-effective, you can buy it right!

Official media also stated on many occasions that two-wheeled electric vehicles are national-level vehicles for prevention and control. Nowadays, during the full-scale resumption of production and the peak season of school, there is naturally a lot of demand.

Under the impact of the epidemic, our industry is indeed affected, but the resumption of production is still smooth, a lot of market demand is also there, the key depends on who can win and eat well, come on!

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